The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has left its forecast for the global oil market mostly unchanged. Despite supply cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia, which are set to continue until the end of the year, OPEC foresees rising oil demand.
According to OPEC’s monthly report, oil demand is expected to increase by 2.4 million barrels a day in 2021 and an additional 2.2 million barrels a day in 2024, aligning with the forecast made in September.
While OPEC made minor adjustments to its supply expectations, lifting its non-OPEC forecast for 2023 growth by 100,000 barrels a day to 1.7 million barrels a day, its supply-growth forecast for 2024 remained unchanged at 1.4 million barrels a day.
The International Energy Agency also released its oil-market report, highlighting significant risks associated with the current conflict in Israel and escalating tensions in the Middle East. However, OPEC did not mention the conflict in its report.
OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia as the largest producer, relies on extensive analysis to assess and predict global oil demand. As part of its updated projections, OPEC raised its 2023 global economic growth forecast to 2.8% from 2.7%. Nevertheless, it anticipates a slowdown in global growth to 2.6% next year.
Based on secondary sources, OPEC reported that Saudi Arabia’s oil production increased by 82,000 barrels a day in September, contradicting the country’s public commitment to reduce output in 2021. Last month, Saudi Arabia reaffirmed its plan to cut oil production by 1 million barrels a day until year-end.
Additionally, Nigerian oil production rose by 141,000 barrels a day in September, as stated by OPEC citing secondary sources. Overall, OPEC crude output reached 27.75 million barrels a day in September, reflecting a rise of 273,000 barrels a day.
