Median 1-Year Inflation Expectations Fall in April, but Uncertainty Holds High

Median 1-Year Inflation Expectations Fall in April, but Uncertainty Holds High

(New York Fed) The median inflation expectations over the next year in the US fell to 6.3% in April from 6.6% in March.

The median three-year inflation expectations still rose by 0.2 percentage points to 3.9% in April.

The median inflation uncertainty also showed slight increases to a fresh record high. The uncertainty at the short-term horizon hit a series high but remained unchanged at a record high in the medium-term.  

In the housing sector, the price expectations were unchanged at 6.0%, although it remained elevated from the pre-Covid levels. 

In the labor market, the medium one-year ahead earnings growth was unchanged at a series high of 3.0%. Mean unemployment expectations rose by 0.1 percentage point to 36.3%, the highest since February last year.

The median expected increase in household income improved by 0.1 percentage point to 3.1%, below the series high of 3.4% in December last year.

SPY is down -2.71%, DXY is up +0.22%.

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