(Federal Reserve NY) Median consumer price expectations rose 0.8% to a record 4.8% at the one-year horizon. The inflation expectations at the three-year horizon were unchanged at 3.6%.
The uptick in inflation expectations came amid a 0.1% surge in expected earnings growth to 2.6% in June, the highest level since the start of the pandemic.
Mean unemployment expectations declined to a series low of 30.7%, from 31.9% in May.
The perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next year lowered from 12.6% on average to 10.9% in June.
The perceived probability of getting a job in the next three months rose by 0.2% on average to 54.2% in June, the highest since the start of the pandemic.
The overall median expected household income growth for the next twelve months rose to 3.0% in June, up from 2.8% in May.
Median spending growth expectations by households ticked higher by 0.2% to 5.2% in June, a record high.
Expectations of the US stock prices gaining in the next 12 months fell by 0.5% to 40.2% in June, below 2020’s mean of 44.3%.
SPY is up +0.23%, DXY is up +0.18%.
