Let’s summarize the situation.
We were on the edge of slipping into a bear market, with BTC under heavy selling pressure and looking bearish on daily, hourly, and weekly timeframes.
A lot of people were caught off guard, selling their crypto to prepare for shorts and ending up sidelined — I was one of them, and I’m pissed. Since I live in Asia, I was asleep when it happened, and so was the entire Asian market.
Then, conveniently, Trump announced the strategic crypto reserve, which was originally scheduled for Friday to coincide with the White House crypto summit. Meanwhile, the tariffs are set to take effect on Tuesday.
On the global stage:
– The rejection of Zelensky has pushed Europe to react, with some leaders now considering sending troops to Ukraine. This could seriously complicate things for the Trump administration and potentially escalate into WWIII. No joke, this is a serious situation.
– Israel has decided to destroy Gaza completely and is now enforcing a full-scale siege, which will cause massive international backlash. The situation there never been so bad.
– Recession fears are mounting, and we can see markets starting to shake and correct.
And then Trump drops his crypto reserve announcement…
– This was a sloppy reveal — posted only on his own platform, not on X — which caused panic, as people scrambled to verify the source, thinking it was fake news.
– Even worse, the initial announcement didn’t mention Bitcoin or Ethereum! Instead, they listed XRP, Cardano, and Solana as part of the reserve, which made people think their accounts were hacked. Later, they corrected it, clarifying that BTC and ETH are at the “heart” of the reserve.
So yeah… Sunday night, completely unexpected, and poorly executed.
What does this mean for BTC?
– Weekly timeframe: Nothing has changed — it’s still in a serious correction, and a 10% daily pump isn’t enough to reverse the trend. My previous analysis is still valid.
Daily timeframe: The MACD has reset, and RSI is now in a neutral zone. This suggests a potential short-term pump over the next few days.
– Key levels: Supports at 91k and 80k are back, but 99k remains a major resistance and could reject BTC.
– Leverage & liquidity: A massive $4.3 billion in longs has been built up, meaning we’re likely to retest the downside to liquidate them.
– CME gap: We just created a 10%+ CME gap, which will most likely be filled.
Conclusion:
Optimism is back, and we could see a short altseason as capital flows into altcoins, now that some are officially part of the U.S. national reserve.
BUT the global situation remains extremely concerning:
– War tensions in Europe and the Middle East
– Recession risks still on the table
– Uncertainty about how this crypto reserve will actually work
This is great news, but going all-in on longs at this point seems risky. How long will this momentum last? More than a week? I’m not sure.
Technically, the correction isn’t over. Unlike December 2024 — when Trump’s election happened at the end of a correction, with a bullish MACD crossover — we are now at the START of a weekly correction, which could last until May 2025.
So yeah, fundamentally bullish, but technically, the correction still has room to go.
