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Bitcoin has produced a range-bound movement recently, with prices oscillating between $83,000 and 86,000. Interestingly, popular crypto analyst Burak Kesmeci has identified the important price levels for any short-term action.
In a new post on X, Kesmeci shared an interesting on-chain analysis of the Bitcoin market. Using the short-term investor cost basis, the analyst identified two key price levels that could prove critical to Bitcoin’s next major move.
Firstly, Burak Kesmeci focuses on the average cost prices of new traders over the past 1-4 weeks, which are likely the most reactive to price changes. The realized price for these traders currently stands at $82,800, forming a near-term support that indicates many recent buyers are still in profit and may defend this level as a psychological floor.
Meanwhile, Kesmeci also highlights the $92,000 price level, which marks the average cost basis for BTC holders for 1-3 months. This price point has emerged as an important resistance zone, as investors are likely to exit the market once they break even. Furthermore, the $92,000 price level is also marked by a confluence with various technical indicators.
The interplay between these two levels is significant. Historically, short-term bullish trends in BTC tend to begin when the cost basis of more recent investors, 1-4 weeks, crosses above that of the 1-3 BTC holders. This shift signals increased confidence and willingness to buy at higher levels, which often fuels broader rallies.
However, that dynamic remains to play out in the current market. As of now, Bitcoin is trading around 85,000, positioning it above its support at the 1-4 week average of $82,800 but still below the 1-3 month resistance of $92,000. Furthermore, both cost basis levels have been declining over the past two months, reflecting hesitation or a lack of aggressive buying from new entrants.
Notably, Kesmeci states that BTC must surge above $92,000 to confirm a strong bullish momentum for a price reversal.
In other news, Ali Martinez reports that the Bitcoin ETFs have suffered withdrawals of 1,725 Bitcoin, valued at $146.92 million, over the past week. This development illustrates a high level of negative sentiment among institutional investors, adding to market uncertainty around the BTC market.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin trades at $85,249 following a price change of 0.89% in the past day. The premier cryptocurrency also reflects a 0.58% loss on the weekly chart and a 1.06% gain on a monthly chart.
