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Nepal’s youth uprising has left it in a flux. India should continue engaging, without appearing to influence outcomes
Nepal’s social media ban didn’t cause Oli’s fall anymore than fruit seller Mohamed Bouazizi’s self-immolation stirred the Arab Spring in Tunisia in 2010. Both were trigger events, but the unrest – arising from widespread discontent – had been building up for months. That Oli was busy cementing his position in his party, CPN-UML, on Sunday – to ensure a third term at its helm – only shows how out of touch he and his govt were with the youth’s angst. Monday’s brutal crackdown, that left at least 20 young protesters dead, made their position untenable.
Although Nepal army has taken charge of security now, the ongoing churn is a matter of grave concern for India, coming just over a year after a student revolution in Bangladesh dislodged the friendly regime of Sheikh Hasina. Nepal is geopolitically more significant as a buffer between India and China, and has largely played friend in the tense subcontinent. Although Oli is a known India-baiter, cosying up to China and raising thorny issues – CPN-UML again opposed India and China’s agreement to trade across the Lipulekh Pass on Monday – India has responded cautiously. Modi on Tuesday described the violence as “heart-rending”, and appealed “to all my brothers and sisters in Nepal to support peace”.
Wait-and-watch is the best approach for now, because “intervention” of any kind will be resented, especially when rumours of a foreign hand in the “uprising” are rife. With China actively courting Nepal, India does not want to be seen playing big brother. The stakes are high – India has traditionally been Nepal’s biggest foreign investor and source of assistance. But since 2017, Chinese FDI commitments – not actual investments – have grown bigger. India no longer has a trade monopoly in Nepal. While it remains the main source of petrol and diesel, memories of 2015’s unofficial trade blockade – imposed after the adoption of Nepal’s new constitution – have made Nepal cautious. This year, China has grabbed the lead in Nepal’s car market with EVs, pushing India to second place.
