I have a bullish bias on AUDJPY based on the following factors:
– Seasonality – AUDJPY have a probability to remain bullish towards end of Jul, early Aug
– COT report:
– For AUD, since start of Jun, non-commercial positions on the long side have remain unchanged but on the short side have significantly increased
– For JPY, since start of Jun, non-commercial positions on the long side have decreased and shorts have increased
– Forex Fundamentals (Summary 3 Score) – AUD and JPY scores in the last few months have been decreasing
– Fundamental News – US and EU have agreed on a trade deal with 15% tariff. This is risk on indications for the global markets since it indicates certainty going forward
Technicals:
– AUDJPY – in an uptrend on 4H and D with no divergence on both timeframes. However, price is approaching a strong resistance zone/double top which is our TP target
